Germany sets a travel spending record—sustaining it won’t be simple

With record travel gross bookings of €76.3 billion in 2025, Germany extended its lead as Europe's largest outbound travel market.

That 5% growth came despite two years of GDP contraction, a surge in geopolitical disruption and a meaningful reshuffling of destination demand as travelers avoided Middle East routes and redirected to Southern Europe. 

Phocuswright's Germany Travel Market Essentials 2026 examines the forces behind that growth, the structural vulnerabilities that could restrain it in 2026 and the outlook for sustained 4% average annual growth once the current conflict stabilizes. 

Resilient but uneven gains ahead 

German travel market growth will be uneven across segments and heavily influenced by geopolitics, pricing and consumer confidence. The Iran conflict is likely to keep pressure on long-haul demand, while more Germans are likely to vacation closer to home. As a result, rail-based vacations are a growing trend in Germany, especially for international and city-to-city travel. Deutsche Bahn said in May 2026 that cross-border  passengers in long-distance rail were 30% above 2019, and it expects that number to keep rising as more European connections open. 

At the same time, Germany is expected to retain its position as Europe's largest travel market in gross bookings through 2029, supported by continued leisure demand and a preference for higher-quality trips. If the Middle East conflict eases in 2026, industry performance is expected to normalize from 2027 onward, with annual travel growth projected at around 4% in the following years.

Digital, AI-driven, price-sensitive

Digitalization remains one of the strongest structural themes across the market. The German Internet Travel Association reports that 77% of trips now include at least one travel service booked online, up from 74% in 2024, while 17% of Germans have already used artificial intelligence (AI) for travel planning. This underlines how quickly the market is becoming more digital, more price-conscious and increasingly AI-driven, with suppliers using technology to improve conversion and customer engagement. 

At the same time, distribution remains highly fragmented and competitive. While online booking continues to gain share, offline channels still remain highly relevant in German travel, especially for more complex or higher-value trips. As a result, travel agencies continue to play an important role, while online channels keep expanding their reach and importance.

Booking.com and Check24 are expected to remain the dominant OTAs, supported by strong consumer recognition and broad product coverage. Check24 in particular benefits from its comparison-platform model and the increasing use of digital travel planning tools, while supplier-direct booking also continues to gain importance as operators seek to reduce distribution costs and strengthen customer relationships.

Overall, operators that can combine attractive pricing, flexible inventory and seamless digital customer journeys increasingly have a competitive edge. In a market that is not experiencing spectacular growth but rather structural change, the winners will be those that are fastest to adapt to online behavior, AI-enabled planning and shifting booking preferences.

Please note: All market sizing, projections and analysis contained in Phocuswright’s Europe Travel Market Report 2026 series were completed before the impact of the war in Iran could be fully assessed. While our analyst team has made every effort to take into account the actual and likely repercussions of the conflict on these travel markets, the full impact in Europe and elsewhere will ultimately depend on the length of the war and other factors.