Australia has done a phenomenal job of flattening the curve. To date, the nation has contained the number of coronavirus-related deaths to less than 100. Australia's number of confirmed cases per million is 275.
By comparison, the United States confirmed case rate currently stands at 4,464 per million. The United Kingdom's death rate per million is 501 - more than 125x the rate of Australia.
Despite the early case growth, the subsequent measures resulted in a May forecast with a hotel occupancy rate of 20% and a year-over-year (YoY) RevPAR decline of nearly 83%. Considered in isolation, those figures would be deemed disastrous.
When compared to the other destinations evaluated by Phocuswright, based on LodgIQ's forecast model, Sydney trails only Singapore in seeing the least degree of disruption.
Singapore employed a "circuit-breaker" to mitigate a secondary outbreak, following a lockdown in neighboring Malaysia and outbreaks that swept through migrant worker dormitories. In contrast, Sydney was able to achieve a similar directional outcome without resorting to such a strict curtailment of civil liberties.
Beginning in mid-May, Sydney is managing a controlled opening of some businesses and restaurants, while Singapore is hoping for circuit-breaker restrictions to begin easing in two weeks.
Over the coming months, by teaming up with the data science team at LodgIQ, Phocuswright is evaluating a broad swathe of hotel-related and other data across a variety of key metropolitan
Our key objectives are to model the:
- Level of disruption
- Duration of disruption
- Shape of the recovery curve
The goal is to understand the similarities and differences in hotel market dynamics between destinations.
This is especially relevant, as some markets may have yet to peak in terms of the level of infections, while others are seeing active coronavirus case counts decline.
The seventh COVID-19 Hotel Forecast report, written by Robert Cole, covers the Australian tourist hub of Sydney. It is available for free below (download here) or via the Phocuswright website.