The short-term rental (STR) sector is feeling the pressure amid staffing and revenue concerns, but property managers still predict modest growth in the coming year.
Findings were published in Key Data’s Vacation Rental Industry Outlook 2026, which included responses from approximately 250 property management professionals across the U.S. representing over 43,000 properties. CEOs, revenue managers, marketing professionals, general managers and owners were part of the survey pool.
With competition already tough and set to become even more intense in 2026, revenue is top of mind, but the outlook is relatively optimistic. Roughly 60% of property managers predict modest growth in revenue, compared to 28% who anticipate flat growth and 9% who predict significant growth.
Comparatively, just 18% predict a modest decline, with no respondents predicting a significant decline. An added layer comes from property owners, with managers reporting that financial performance is the top factor in their decision to remain in a management program.
When it comes to the barriers to growth, 73% of respondents cited operations and staffing challenges, as well as revenue and market pressures, as the most likely to limit their ability to hit 2026 targets. External factors such as regulatory and legal issues were also cited by 43%.
Some of the top regulatory concerns were cited as strict permitting or licensing requirements (47%), high or increasing occupancy taxes and tourism fees (38%) and pushback or pressure from local residents or associations (30%).
“The data makes clear that property managers are feeling the pressure as they head into 2026. Staffing shortages, revenue concerns and regulation are weighing heavily on the sector,” said Melanie Brown, VP of data analytics and insights at Key Data.
Phocuswright research published in March also highlighted regulation concerns in the sector, with 47% of STR agreeing or strongly agreeing that regulations “have already forced them to alter their business model in some capacity” and 56% agreeing or strongly agreeing that they “fear regulation will affect their ability to continue operating successfully.”
To achieve 2026 goals, property managers ranked operational focus as the top priority, followed by marketing focus, guest experience focus, portfolio management focus and technology focus. Even though tech is at the bottom of the list, however, it’s not being ignored; Key Data also found that 95% of property owners are using a property management system “confirming it as the non-negotiable backbone of operations.”
“What we also see is a shift in priorities: Managers are putting operations and efficiency ahead of expansion and leaning more on data to make decisions. It reflects a market that is bracing for tougher conditions while still looking for steady, sustainable growth,” Brown said.
The report further pointed out that operates are “planning around staffing, revenue pressures and competition rather than betting on outsized ADR growth.”
According to survey findings, almost half of property managers (43%) expect ADRs to remain flat, while 38% anticipate modest growth and 18% predict modest decline.
The role of OTAs
With ongoing conversations surrounding online travel agencies (OTAs), Key Data also revealed the top players among property managers, with 67% reporting that they plan to rely on these companies the same amount, 19% expecting to rely on them less and 11% expecting to rely on them more.
“This balance shows OTAs are deeply entrenched but not expanding, with diversification into direct booking slowly gaining traction,” the report reads.
Vrbo and Airbnb are used the most often, by 97% and 90%, respectively. Booking.com was cited by 73% and noted as growing in international and urban markets, while 66% reported the use of other, unspecified OTAs.