Sounding Off: Never doubt travel's resilience, unless outside forces intervene

Chris Hemmeter, Thayer Ventures

"Travel is far more resilient and dynamic than even the most optimistic experts in the space predicted pre-pandemic."

Quote from Chris Hemmeter, managing director of Thayer Ventures, in an article on PhocusWire this week on the travel investment landscape.

Each Friday, PhocusWire dissects and debates an industry trend or new development covered by PhocusWire that week.

It's perhaps a little unfair to pour cold water on an influential figure's optimism and perspective.

Chris Hemmeter is a seasoned investor in real estate, hospitality, food and, since 2007, a myriad of travel startups through his Thayer Ventures finance vehicle.

He and a handful of other high-profile figures in the travel, tourism and hospitality industry have consistently said over the last 18 months that the sector will bounce back with a fair amont of gusto from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Their takes on the resilence of the market are what the industry needs to hear (not the downbeat mutterings of journalists and grizzled pundits) and, yet, for every positive proclaimation there must be a word of warning.

The industry might be operated by a resilient bunch of executives, mid-layer management and, most importantly, a dedicated frontline workforce - but it can't do what it does best when the external factors that shape it are still so unsettled.

The Delta variant, first in Asia, then in Europe and now with the U.S. finally realizing a spin-off virus was always going to be a dangerous part of the pandemic's narrative, is not going away any time soon, unfortunately.

But even if the industy can weather that latest storm, then other factors are still in play to hinder any kind of progress.

Many state-backed furlough and financial support programs are coming to an end in the next few weeks and months, meaning that actual revenues are going to be more important than ever.

It is safe to say that the final four months of 2021 are likely to be some of the most stressful the sector has faced yet, as its brands juggle operational issues around recovery alongside the burden of cashflow and workforce retention.

The industry is certainly resilient - but the virus, the economics of the market and a nervous society are still conspiring against travel brands, to test their resolve, above and beyond what the optimists think it is capable of handling.