2020 was certainly a year to remember/forget (delete as applicable).
But at the level of the sightseeing and experiences sector, what are the key moments of the year, beyond the complete destruction of our collective livelihoods caused by COVID?
The end of petrol and diesel sightseeing by 2030
Although mooted at the back end of a turbulent period in the history of the industry, when so many other things happened, 2020 will also be remembered as the year when genuine progress was made around changes to how sightseeing was carried out.
Feedback from this call was mixed. A few people argue that with no income in 2020 and limited expected in 2021, setting this goal is an impossible and irrelevant target. Others, like myself, point at evidence of climate change and suggest this is way too little, way too late.
Either way, I predict petrol and diesel based sightseeing WILL be history by 2030. Bear this in mind as you buy new buses, shuttles and other sightseeing vehicles.
Read more about it in a previous discussion.
Digital tours and activities launched and failed
In the early days of the pandemic, it looked like digital sightseeing was the next big thing.
Two approaches dominate:
- Customer static/host static (with Airbnb appearing to take a leading position)
- Customer static/host moving (e.g. Amazon, Local Purse & My Real Trip)
Am I excited by either approach? Not massively. I believe the customer has to move in the real world, not the host.
Autonomous sightseeing vehicles moved a step nearer
At the Arival event in 2018, I wore a t-shirt that said that urban vehicle based sightseeing must transition to autonomous vehicles by 2025. I was happy with that date, it felt a little conservative, however it is not wise to announce a date such as this and then not meet it.
In 2020, Amazon (Zoox) and Lyft announced that they will be operational, commercially, by 2022/2023 in multiple markets. Google (Waymo), also in 2020, started accepting customer money for autonomous vehicle rides in one market: Phoenix.
For those who didn’t believe that this timeline was likely at all, 2020 was the year that showed that these vehicles ARE coming soon and at scale. For vehicle based sightseeing companies in these early market cities, transitioning by 2025 is wildly insufficient.
Expedia resets foundations and looks in prime position to win in 3-5 years time
Back in the day, as CEO/CTO of TourCMS, I lead Expedia’s first reservation system connectivity project in 2015, leading to Gray Line winning the Expedia Epic Award for 2016.
As such. I know the business as well as any external person who can talk without any current relationship.
In 2020, Expedia shut its on-the-ground retail business and shifted much of the online retailing to be based on Tripadvisor/Viator supply.
This was was seen as a major loss to the sector but I see it another way. I see this as Expedia Group positioning to win in the future.
This may or may not be an intentional strategy, but Expedia is now free of its legacy business and able to build up again in the new form that is becoming clear will become the dominant industry structure. For tours, the OTA retailer model is on the way out.
Compare Expedia’s position with that of GetYourGuide. The Germany-based business knows that, for tours, its Originals brand is the right way to go (and I agree).
However, GetYourGuide appears to be struggling to transition to this strategy as it has to move into that position at significant scale, given its pre-existing funding level.
I see an opportunity for Expedia to deliver on the new industry-wide structure before GetYourGuide achieves it, as Expedia is now unencumbered by an online and offline legacy business.