Global travel has proved resilient, steadily growing during economic doldrums and geopolitical turmoil. If you go by one economic forecast, it will continue to climb through the clouds over the next decade.
Global overnight visitor flows will rise at 5.4% a year through 2023, according to a forecast by Oxford Economics, a consultancy, commissioned by Amadeus, the travel IT giant.
That pace will be faster than the 3.4% projected growth rate for global gross domestic product (GDP).
But as the center of economic gravity shifts toward the east, travel patterns will tilt eastward, too. Half the growth in outbound business travel expenditure in the next ten years will come from Asia, says the report, which was published today.
As soon as this year, China may overtake the US as the largest source of outbound travel spend. More broadly, these trends suggest that the Asia Pacific region will overtake Europe to dominate global outbound travel spend by 2023.
Looked at another way, visitor flows in Asia are expected to double, decade-on-decade.
One driver of this change is the cultural attitudes of Asia, where video-conferencing doesn't cut it. The study cites surveys that show that direct face-to-face contact is "a particularly important component of ongoing business relationships."
One more trend to watch, according to the report: Low-cost carriers are outgrowing general traffic in every continent. (For more, see Tnooz's deep dive into Asia-Pacific low cost carriers, GDS channels and collaboration.)
Any economic forecast needs to be taken with a grain of salt. (Almost no forecast predicted the recent financial crisis, for instance.)
This report partly appears to assume that average oil prices will be steady or deflating for many years. But rising costs of oil drilling or international conflict could push up prices. Oil accounts for a third of airline operating costs, though the spread of more fuel-efficient planes may help to keep budgets in line.
See the full report via a blog post from Amadeus.
Earlier on Tnooz:Four big trends shaping travel in Asia-Pacific