Whether it’s through an IPO or a direct listing, Airbnb will go public in 2020.

The San Francisco-based unicorn, which was last valued at $35 billion in March, is reportedly profitable on an EBITDA basis.

Consequently, Airbnb is viewed as a relatively safe bet that has attracted a lot of investor interest.

But after Uber and Lyft’s less-than-stellar IPOs in 2019, and WeWork’s infamous demise, could Airbnb be the next big public market disappointment?

Jake Fuller, senior managing director at Guggenheim Partners, says that although the “WeWork debacle” is going to change the way that public markets value companies, Airbnb has a more managed growth profile than “some of those IPOs that did not work.”

He was joined on a panel at the 2019 Phocuswright Conference with fellow top Wall Street analysts Mark Mahaney, managing director for RBC Capital Markets, Eric Sheridan, managing director for UBS and Lloyd Walmsley, director for Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. 

Seema Moody, global markets reporter for CNBC, moderated the discussion on the state of online travel stocks.

The panelists agree that the IPO market has changed, which will impact how private companies go public in 2020.

Sheridan says “there’s been a shift in investor appetite” recently away from the “growth-at-all-cost mentality” from earlier in the year.

Fuller predicts that as private capital dries up, there will be a more “disciplined approach” for private companies that will prep them for the public market.

This past earnings season, it also became clear to investors the extent of Google’s algorithm changes on online travel agencies.

“Where it’s newer is having Expedia call this out as a headwind,” says Walmsley. “That really spooked investors.” 

Mahaney refers to this declining organic traffic as the “Google squeeze” and argues that “there’s no more for free lunch” for OTAs.

Watch the video below for the full discussion.