Airbnb may not be feasting on the lunch of Booking.com and Expedia after all, as several factors come into play that could inhibit its growth.
This is the warning from a financial trader, writing for the Seeking Alpha investment website this week, who anonymously says he is "bullish" about the Priceline Group after a series of events in recent week have indicated that any overwhelmingly positive view of Airbnb and its impact on the established players should be reined in.
The writer says a previously bullish position on the company, outlined in an article around a month ago, had since hardened further.
Although many of those watching the market closely believe that Airbnb will have booked around half of the number of Expedia's by the end of this year, Seeking Alpha's trader argues that the room and house sharing giant "will not become the big threat to online travel companies like many believe it will in the next few years".
Firstly, the trader argues that Airbnb is likely to face similar kick-back from cities around the world in the same vein as it has recently from the Germany capital Berlin and its US home city, San Francisco.
Both have sought to clamp down on owners renting out properties.
The trader writes:
"If Airbnb continues to thrive, you are looking at a situation where house demand is going to remain buoyant as buy-to-let investors and private residence owners will have not just the option to rent out to tenants but also the option of renting out their buildings for short term rental purposes.
"As I see it, there is no problem with any of the above if the building owner has the property properly registered with the relevant authorities (so income will be declared).
"The problem is when the owner only has one residence (primary residence) and is renting out his whole apartment/house but declaring it (or not) as someone booking a room or two."
Part of the problem could be exacerbated by whistleblower websites being created so that concerned residents in a community can be essentially "squeal" on their neighbours if they feel that someone is not adhering to tax or other local laws.
The other prediction is that the Priceline Group will continue to reap the benefits of the weak dollar around the world, giving it the ability to bring in revenue from foreign markets (and favourable exchange rates). It currently trousers around 90% of its revenue finance from overseas.
Any weakness on the company's bottom line could have impacted on its ability (and presumably Expedia, which operates a similar model) to spend huge sums of money on digital advertising.
Both companies were in the $3 billion adspend range during 2015.