IATA is forecasting a fundamental overhaul of airline distribution within five years, shifting to what it calls an "active distribution" model.
In a major report for the global aviation industry organisation, written by Henry Harteveldt of Atmosphere Research, airline distribution is cited as the "commercial future of the airline industry itself" as carriers are urged to anticipate significant changes to passenger behaviour and technology.
The report says:
"Airlines want to be dramatically more effective in how they sell, so that travelers find the value they seek and airlines can be more successful businesses.
"We believe that, by 2021, airline distribution will evolve from its current passive, rigid, and technology-centric state to a more flexible, dynamic, and passenger-centric environment which we call active distribution."
Drilling down into specific elements of this predicted switch from the status quo, the report says the next five years will see a range of long-standing processes taken in entirely new directions but all eventually leading towards a wholly different way for the airline-passenger relationship to work (and, in turn, how intermediaries will fit in).
IATA, of course, has skin in the game when it comes to airline distribution, given how aggressively it is pushing the New Distribution Capability standard for airlines.
Yet very few in the industry are likely to disagree with many of the findings in the report - perhaps just the degree to which they are forecast to change.
Harteveldt has identified in the study a number of likely areas of significant movement affecting airline distribution over the course of the next five years.
1) Traveller types
An ageing consumer base and geographic spread of travellers into other emerging economies (second tier, beyond the BRICs) will ensure that airline distribution systems and third party channels will need to accommodate and cater for different types of "shopping experiences".
This change in consumer behaviour will be driven by mobile interaction, with it seen as the dominant consumer channel.
2) New technologies
Airline distribution will need to have the ability to work with and alongside speech and voice recognition software, with artificial intelligence-based processes handling areas such as dynamic pricing and personalisation.
Virtual reality will also have to play a part in the allowing airlines to merchandise their products in a way that appeals to potential passengers.
3) Airline direct
Carriers are expected to see around 45% of reservations coming through their own direct channels by 2021, up from 33% this year.
This will be at the expense of online travel agencies and offline agents, although travel management companies will see a small increase.
4) Existing distribution technology
Processes and protocols created over 50 years by the Global Distribution Systems are based on technology, rather than passenger needs. The IT environments of airlines will clash with "outmoded" technology from GDSs from upgrading to incorporating new product attributes.
5) Fare filing
Airlines will no longer need to pre-file huge volumes of fares through third parties and rely on so-called "inventory buckets" to handle capacity and ticket sales.
6) Goodbye PSS, hello retailing
Modern internal selling systems will be replaced by modular technology, based on Full Retailing Platform services (dynamic and flexible sales). These will give airlines control over their distribution of fares and where they choose to sell through specific shopping channels.
7) The Mighty G
Google is considered to be the most significant disruptive element in the airline distribution foodchain. The search giant is well-placed to use its own assets and resources to play a larger role in airline distribution, including potentially becoming an online travel agency in its own right.
8) Splash the cash
The rise of both local or regional payments systems (M-Pesa and Alipay) and new global operators (PayPal, Apply Pay, Google Pay), all inevitably with the mobile device at their heart, will ensure airlines and third parties have to upgrade their existing financial systems and protocols.
The report concludes:
"The next five years may see more change within airline distribution than the previous 50.
"The change may be stimulated by external macro factors that impact the industry, such as politics and trade, global and national economies, technology innovation and access, and airline industry conditions (e.g., airline start-ups and mergers, airport access, and fuel costs).
"But much of airline distribution’s evolution, and possible revolution, will stem from events much closer to this function. Airline distribution is no longer insular or isolated.
"Airline distribution has ceased to be solely about GDS connectivity. Distribution is, and will continue to be, about building and sustaining a highly efficient marketplace for each airline, so that each airline has the best possible “shelves” on which to sell its products."
NB: The full 76-page report from IATA is here.
NB2: Aircraft sky image via FreeImages.