As we ponder the mysteries of the iPad and mobile experience on the web, are we seeing a fundamental shift in user behaviour?
So, for my sins, I have acquired an iPad2. After using the device for a few weeks, I started to wonder what share of browsing is now taking place on an iPad? The device now has 2.1% of the browser share in the US, and worldwide more than 1%.
In contrast Microsoft's browser share is falling, and fast.
My personal browsing shows that I use Internet Explorer 9 less than 5% of the time, where as I keep Firefox as my default and use Chrome for alternative windows, mostly because of the automatic translate feature.
Less than 1% of my time is via mobile browsing on my (various) mobile devices.
So, the browsing experience is changing. But is that because of the browser or because of the use of the applications that we are using?
While I don’t like the assumption that I live in an "always on" world, the fact is that a lot of people are leaving their devices permanently connected to the web. The latest Firefox 5, IE9 and Chrome versions are expressly built on that assumption.
I think there is actually LESS browsing and searching going on. We are now moving to an implicit web, not an explicit web, experience.
For travel this will have a profound impact and is likely to blow apart the current rigid structure of travel distribution.
I believe we are at a fundamental point, the likes of which we have not seen before - in fact, we are about to witness the convergence of several factors.
Here is a partial list:
1. Browser
The consumer is tired of the explicit web and wants to move to the implicit web – the experience is not driven through the browser to the site-based model. The evidence to support this is the number of clicks that are falling before the consumer abandons a particular path of activity.
2. Interaction
The changing habits of the web-led consumer as they mature, and as we move beyond the basic Web 1.0 access to full-on Web 2.0 and even into the semantic world of Web 3.0.
3. SEO
The gaming of SEO has so ticked off the consumer that he is working actively against it. The travel consumer uses a search engine far less than for a regular product evaluation. In most cases it is because the consumer has familiarity with travel. It is one of the most used products on the web.
4. Multiple sources
The fragmentation of the travel process creates so many different places for a user to start his workflow. Note, this differs from…
5. Splinternet
Or, fragmentation of content. Content is now so located in so many different channels and various areas of the web, meaning they have to chase valuable information in so many different sources.
6. Lack of trust
No-one has built a mechanism to evaluate so-called true value of trust on the web, at least not in travel.
7. Cloudy
Cloud computing and its companion of virtualization is making the roles of large gatekeepers irrelevant. This impacts the large scale legacy players such as the online travel agencies and the GDSs
8. Applications
The emergence of the mobile web and its short, sharp app-based interaction.
9. Social media
The importance of social media for both recommendation and, more importantly, validation of consumer choice.
10. Demographics
The exit of the large and conventional Baby Boomer community and the emergence of Millenials/Gen-Y users.
So, what we are seeing is that these factors are challenging the status quo.
I believe that the airlines vs GDSs battle and the entry of Google into travel, for example, are symptomatic of this situation. We are moving to a purer world of supply and demand.
Ultimately the consumer is in control. Yes, we have known this for quite some time, but there was an underpinning theory to that - that those who had traffic could actually speak for the travelling consumer.
I believe that now to be false. Volume doesn’t equate to trust (the flight from Microsoft Internet Explorer is a good example of that) and sometimes there is an exit of users when a travel site’s content ceased to be what they were expecting. For example, Expedia’s Comscore ratings dropped by nearly 25%, for a short period of time, when AA was no longer fully present in the mega OTA’s US site
The consumer’s expectation from Expedia is that it is an omnibus site – the full general store. When it ceases to deliver all content then it loses a part of its core proposition.
This change is coming fast and will no doubt hit us all faster than anyone has appreciated. The fast adoption of mobile web – as we hear from sites such as Skyscanner – is a further reinforcement that the time is ripe for change. Woe betide anyone who tries to prevent that.
Will you be crushed? Just ask Microsoft.