NB: We asked the Tnooz Nodes to reflect on their Predictions 2010 from 12 months ago - do they have Oracle status or did something come along to derail their forecasts.
Also, what were their favourite posts of the year, on Tnooz or elsewhere, by themselves or others.
Norm Rose (Travel Tech Consulting)
Prediction 2010 #1:
Mobile downloadable apps will continue to grow. Whether it is ordering room services prior to check-in from you mobile phone or buying ancillary services from your favorite airline, mobile apps are becoming a standard platform to deliver more personalized services.
After a year of debate around the mobile web versus downloadable mobile apps, it has become clear that downloadable apps can deliver additional location based services that are more highly personalized. I believe all the major travel suppliers and intermediaries who have not yet implemented downloadable mobile apps in 2009 launching these apps in 2010.
The main focus will be on iPhone, BlackBerry and Android.
Mobile travel apps have gained momentum in 2010 with a flood of downloable apps from suppliers and intermediaries. Innovative apps such as the Priceline Negotiator deliver last minute deals based on location.
The mobile web is gaining ground on native downloadable apps as HTML5 becomes more mature. Android has become the #1 OS in the US and #2 in the world becoming a required platform for any native app initiative.
The industry now recognizes that mobile is a mainstream channel while true mobile innovation based on location, context and personalization is still in its infancy.
Prediction 2010 #2:
Airline merchandizing efforts will disrupt the traditional distribution environment. Airlines will continue to push the travel distribution players to accommodate more sophisticated ancillary services and fare families.
Given AA’s stance that all connectivity needs to be via XML (versus EDIFACT), this will likely push alternative distribution methods such as Farelogix.
Every point of sale needs to be updated to accommodate these new fare families, but this will likely not be resolved in 2010. As a result, OTAs, CBTs, TMCs and traditional travel agencies will struggle with presenting ancillary fees and fare families at the point of sale to the consumer. The corporate market will struggle to determine the total cost of airfare given the growth of these ancillary fees.
Airline distribution has proven to be a heated point of controversy in 2010 and is still unresolved. With the AA/Orbitz (Travelport) battle symbolizing the continued friction between airlines and distribution.
Most OTAs and corporate booking tools still do not show ancillary airline fees in their booking displays. The airline distribution effort is a major attempt to change the traditional distribution value chain, not simply a negotiation strategy by the airlines to drive down GDS segment fees.
The airline panel at PhoCusWright 2010 proved that the desire to control distribution is not limited to AA, as UA and USAir equally voiced their desire to alter distribution.
Favourite articles of 2010: