BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research is the latest to release a report into the Chinese tourism sector, covering lots of familiar ground but also identifying internet and mobile technology as one of the structural tailwinds driving the growth.
Using proprietary research and third party sources, "A Juggernaut Poised For Growth - A Primer on China" leads with the headline finding that Chinese outbound spend will hit $264 billion in 2019, up from $164 billion in 2012.
Meanwhile, the Chinese government want domestic tourism to be worth $890 billion a year by 2020.
Inbound is worth $55bn currently, but interestingly has "stagnated". As well as visa difficulties, pollution and exchange rates, this rare exception to the tourism growth narrative is blamed on poor digital marketing.
"The Chinese underutilize the internet for global promotional purposes. While much of the tourist information is available within China on its own Chinese sites, it is not available to the rest of the world."
Unlike other recent studies, online, mobile and social gets a look-in with the report saying " Chinese tourism is probably one of the best case studies to demonstrate how technology could be an industry disruptor."
In terms of air ticketing, BofA Merrill Lynch thinks that in 2014, 390m air tickets were sold in China, of which 34% are booked online. By 2016, it reckons that the number of ticket sold will reach 463 million, of which 41% will be booked online.
It identifies mobile and younger travellers as reasons for the hike in online bookings.
But it also refers to comments from its regional aviation analyst Paul Dewberry, who believes that "air travel is set to be more affordable in the coming years as excessive capacity additions erode pricing power among the respective airlines."
Hotel bookings however are less prevalent online, despite the moves by the big Chinese OTAs to ramp up their online and mobile capabilities.
The research puts the number of room nights booked in 2014 at 5.8 billion, with a predicted compound annual growth rate over the next three years of 25%. The growth in online bookings will not match this, rising slowly from 18% in 2014 to an estimated 20% in 2016.
Rail is growing in China and is already providing competition to domestic airline routes. The government is committed to growing the country's high speed network from its present 10,000 kilometres to 50,000 kilometres by 2020.
Rail is often overlooked when it comes to discussions about online travel and this report is no exception. Nonetheless, online booking of rail travel in China has significant potential in the medium term.
The three major Chinese OTAs are currently involved in a battle for market share, and this is noted by the research. It says
"We see aggressive investments in coupon promotions, business expansion in various travel segments to compete with rivals to gain share will exert pressure on near-term margins.
"As expansion costs are mostly fixed and front-end loaded, we see operating leverage in the near term and give some confidence on room for margin improvement."
As previously discussed, "China's tourism market is growing" is news to no-one But this report, which stretches to some 90 pages, identifies six factors in an easy cut-out-and-keep format. They are
- increasing wealth and disposable income
- supportive government policies
- infrastructure development and urbanization
- visa liberalization
- upside potential from low penetration
And last but not least
- technology to reshape and ease transaction.
We all knew that Chinese tourism was growing, now some research has put tech at the heart of this growth.