A newly released report showing a decline in vehicle miles driven is causing a bit of a furor in regards to the future of transportation the United States.
The report, released by non-profit advocacy group U.S. Pirg, has found that Millenials are leading the first sustained decline in vehicle miles driven for over 5 decades.
The actual miles driven per capita have been decreasing in the USA since 2007, prior to the Great Recession. This marks a very real departure from what the report dubs the Driving Boom.
The report points to the Millenials as the driving force behind this shift in direction:
The Millennials (people born between 1983 and 2000) are now the largest generation in the United States. By 2030, Millennials will be far and away the largest group in the peak driving age 35-to-54 year old demographic, and will continue as such through 2040.Young people aged 16 to 34 drove 23 percent fewer miles on average in 2009 than they did in 2001—a greater decline in driving than any other age group. The severe economic recession was likely responsible for some of the decline, but not all.Millennials are more likely to want to live in urban and walkable neighborhoods and are more open to non-driving forms of transportation than older Americans. They are also the first generation to fully embrace mobile Internet-connected technologies, which are rapidly spawning new transportation options and shifting the way young Americans relate to one another, creating new avenues for living connected, vibrant lives that are less reliant on driving.If the Millennial-led decline in per capita driving continues for another dozen years, even at half the annual rate of the 2001-2009 period, total vehicle travel in the United States could remain well below its 2007 peak through at least 2040.
This decline means a shift in priorities for both policymakers and transportation oriented companies. As the Millenials age - and their pocketbooks bulge - they will expect services and infrastructure to cater to their now-standard lifestyles of density, public transportation, biking, walking and smartphone-fueled freedom.
Without car payments, gas and insurance, this demogaphic also has an extra $5-6k a year of discretionary spend - a mammoth opportunity for Millennial-targeted marketers. Imagine: "No car? Then fly away to ______"
The study (which can be downloaded here) has been organized into a handy infographic showing the longer-term trends - and raising plenty of questions regarding long-term positioning in travel and transportation.