Airbnb, HomeAway watch: Goldman Sachs finds strong adoption by travelers

Last month, investment bank Goldman Sachs downgraded the stocks of Priceline Group and TripAdvisor.

One of its explanations was that it is worried that travelers are opting for property-sharing services like Airbnb, Expedia Inc-owned HomeAway, and TripAdvisor-owned FlipKey as peer-to-peer (P2P) alternatives to traditional hotel bookings.

This week, Goldman Sachs's global equity research team has released the results of a US consumer survey that happens to give credence to that trend forecast.

Do people like peer-to-peer lodging more than traditional hotels?

"If people have stayed in peer-to-peer lodging [defined as including lodging on sites from Airbnb, HomeAway, and FlipKey, among others] in the last five years, the likelihood that they prefer traditional hotels is halved (79% vs. 40%). "Even people who have used these accommodations for 1-5 nights experience this dramatic shift in preferences. We find it interesting that people “do a 180” in their preferences once they use P2P lodging. They move directly from preferring traditional hotels to preferring P2P accommodations. The “no preference” category does not meaningfully gain share. Once a person has stayed in P2P lodging, their preference is roughly equally split: 40% prefer traditional hotels, 36% prefer P2P lodging, and the remainder have no preference."

The Goldman Sachs survey measures people's stated intentions, not actual purchasing decisions. The bank has been conducting surveys of representative groups of 2,000 consumers for more than a decade, and this one follows in that methodology.

A different survey from foreign exchange seller Travelex last week found that only 4% of Americans are considering Airbnb for their next vacation.

Yet a key theme is that this may be a long-term secular trend that is also a global phenomenon, and initial purchasing data from elsewhere supports that view.

A case in point: Late last year, Goldman Sachs predicted a rise Japanese guest room supply in lodgings of all types, from 1.58 million in the third quarter of 2015 to 1.81 million by 2026, with an expected rise in supply from Airbnb and other private lodgings of 31,000 rooms being part of that share.

In hotbed travel destinations like London, Paris, and New York, Airbnb already represents between 10% and 17% of lodging room supply and between 3% and 8% of room demand, according to other surveys. One New York City forecast by HVS is even more specific.

Here's more from the Goldman Sachs survey:

Who’s heard of these peer-to-peer lodging sites?

More people are becoming familiar with P2P lodging sites. The percent of respondents familiar with these sites has increased from 24% to 35% from 1Q15 to 4Q15. Who uses these sites? The percent of respondents that have used these sites for leisure in the last year has increased from 11% to 16% from 1Q15 to 4Q15. About half of the people familiar with P2P lodging sites have used them.High income consumers (>$120K) are more familiar with these sites than middle income consumers ($70K-$120K) but are less likely to use them.P2P lodging is not just for millennials. Young Gen Xers (ages 35-44) behave more like Millennials and older Gen Xers (ages 45-54) behave more like Baby Boomers, in this context."