With Expedia and Orbitz Worldwide reining in their marketing spend in the past two quarters, PhoCusWright is looking to Priceline to pick up market share in the third quarter.
"With Expedia and Orbitz spending less aggressively on marketing, we anticipate continued share gains and marketing efficiency for Priceline," writes Jake Fuller, senior research analyst, finance and analytics, in OTA 2Q 10 Review and 3Q10 Preview.
In fact, Fuller estimates that Priceline's global bookings would rise 37% to $3.72 billion, its revenue would increase 44% to $627 million and EBITDA would climb 45% to $324 million, all compared to the third quarter of 2009.
The third quarter of 2010 ends Sept. 30.
Impressive as these numbers would be, they all show a deceleration in growth compared with the numbers Priceline put up in the second quarter.
Fuller writes that the online travel agency group in the third quarter would notch a deceleration in bookings growth because of "difficult transaction growth volume comps."
However, on the positive side, revenue margins for the group are expected to increase in the third quarter due to an uptick in airfares and larger contributions from advertising and other nontransactional revenue sources, the report says.
Global bookings, revenue and EBITDA numbers at Expedia and Orbitz in the third quarter are expected to trail Priceline's by a substantial clip.
Fuller estimates that Expedia would see global bookings increase 14% to $6.71 billion, revenue jump 7% to $910 million, and EBITDA increase 12% to $317 million.
The Orbitz Worldwide figures would come in at $2.83 billion in global bookings, a 13% increase; a 3% revenue gain to $192 million, and an EBITDA rise of 4% to $46 million, according to the report.
There are no numbers cited for Travelocity, which is a privately held company.
If Fuller's numbers turn out to be true, then Priceline's competitors have yet to find a way to slow down William Shatner and The Negotiator.