Airbus made a big deal at the recent Farnborough show as it presented concepts of a plane in 40 years time. So here’s a thought. Why not implement some of it now…
More than three years ago Easyjet’s then-CEO Andy Harrison argued for a plane that could be in production in ten years.
It looks not unlike the designs that Airbus is proposing.
Boeing abandoned its Sonic Cruiser for the safe solution of the 787, with a corresponding lesser set of advances, particularly in areas of green technology.
The result: a plane of modest economic advances and ecological value. Boeing’s customers argued that a less speedy more fuel efficient solution would sell better.
Translation: head towards a less advanced solution so we don’t have to change too much.
Will Airbus do the same thing and deliver us another modest increase? Sadly I think they will opt for the safe one when it replaces the A320.
Airbus has an opportunity for a home run by developing a next generation aircraft with much greater savings and much better value for the environment, as well as passenger comfort.
With the C-Series offering a significant economy and ecological proposition over current generation A319 and 737-700s, the big two should be pushing the envelope.
What Airbus seems to forget is that in 40 years time there will still be one heck of a lot of A320 and 737 NGs around.
The concept of planning for a plane in production in 40 years says that the plane will need to fly and be in volume production in the next 25 years.
We can expect lead times for new aircraft to lengthen considerably just like military aircraft have done with the F23/F35 generation of planes.
Just look at how long it takes to get a new military aircraft into production (think V22 for example).
The same is true for civil aircraft. Boeing promised an in-service date of 2009, that has passed to 2011 by the latest reports.
One thing Airbus did make clear is that one of the biggest stumbling blocks is the airport. And this is where more and better technologies could be deployed.
Indeed the WSJ’s Middle Seat Column last week covers some very simple solutions that have made some significant inroads into a perennial problem at one of the world’s busiest airports, New York's JFK.
Interestingly, Airbus has a survey asking if people think that Airbus is an innovative company or not.
In the Airbus future document, the final paragraph says:
"Air travel, Airbus and the aerospace industry has an exciting future ahead of it. Unlocking this future will require new levels of inspiration, innovation and investment.
"Above all it will require a shared vision of the future, so that the next 40 years sees everybody working together towards a better, more connected and more sustainable world for all."
C’mon Airbus – go for it… Let’s see something truly innovative right now for the A320 family. If you do, Boeing will follow. Then all of humanity can benefit.