NB: We asked the Tnooz Nodes to reflect on their Predictions 2010 from 12 months ago - do they have Oracle status or did something come along to derail their forecasts.
Also, what were their favourite posts of the year, on Tnooz or elsewhere, by themselves or others.
Alex Bainbridge (TourCMS)
Prediction 2010 #1:
Travel technology companies are in trouble. Many tend to use professional services (training/consultancy/initial setup) to help cover their fixed operational costs. If travel companies merge, go out of business or put off projects for 12 months, the fixed system developments required for operational stability can sometimes not be covered by standard software license fees.
Failure for travel technology companies to remain current can lead to their clients losing out to their competitors. It’s a situation that doesn’t make that many headlines, but travel technology companies, the infrastructure behind many travel companies, hurt badly in a downturn.
On reflection:
I was probably right that the global economic struggle that travel companies face does directly impact how travel technology companies reinvest in their core products.
As a result most of the innovations you see today (covered in Tnooz and pitching at startup competitions such as at PhocusWright) tend to be consumer facing. There are very few startups solving problems for suppliers (except where they need to in order to provide a better consumer facing service).
There are going to be longer term consequences to this lack of supplier side travel tech investment as many of the new consumer facing innovations are built on weak (or non existent) foundations.
Prediction 2010 #2:
2010 will be the year of the niche tour operator/activity company. Airlines will stop referring to tours/activities as ancillary revenue but realise that these products rather than being an extra to a flight purchase are often the reason people go travelling in the first place.
For enlightened airlines this may change how they use the web – eg expect to see many widgets which permit flight availability to be incorporated into small tour operator/activity company websites, even if the transaction isn’t being distributed to that company for commercial/regulatory reasons.
On reflection:
Well, I called that wrong as still few big OTA or GDS players care too much about specialist tours or activities (although a number are sniffing around). However one interesting 2010 "acquisition" in this sector that has mainly gone unnoticed is that the former Ruba team now form the team behind the forthcoming Google travel website.
With its specialist tour operator / activity metasearch pedigree I expect something may come of that which could make 2011 the year that big structural changes happen in this sector. Maybe it won't happen in 2011 but it could do.
Favourite articles of 2010: